What does science and research look like in crises?
Mogadishu University in 2012 with an individual from the Uganda Defense Force in the foreground. Photograph supplied by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).
When we talk about science and research in relation to crises, we typically mean solutions to crises by scientific means. This has obviously produced a significant amount of literature such as the covid crisis.
Another less mainstream reading, and the one I will pursue in this report, is what happens to scientific institutions when they experience major crises, i.e., when they come up against forces greater than themselves.
A large-scale example would be the crisis of science and research in eastern Europe in the last decade of the twentieth century, following the collapse of regimes in those countries. There was indeed a instructive literature analyzing this topic in the 1990s, led by such analysts as Dr. Raymond Bentley and Prof. Dr. Werner Meske, which we will revisit.
For the first section of this report, I will interview a handful of scientists in Europe, Asia, and Africa who have had to deal with recent crises to find out what they think about them. In most parts of the world, science and research is, arguably, in permanent crisis due to lack of funds.
Then I will look at a few varied historical examples, such as we can know them, to ask how major crises have impacted science and research in the past 50 years. I shall draw some tentative conclusions at the end.
Where do we set the boundaries of the crisis? In other words, when did a previous state of equilibrium, so perceived, get disrupted, when did that phase of disruption end, and when was a new state of equilibrium established?
I would not define crises; I let the interviewees speak for themselves and, in terms of the historical examples, I define them as crises because they are typically discussed as such.
My main goal is to estimate what we might, realistically, expect from science and research under the present circumstances, which, according to some commentators, is an era of permanent crisis. Furthermore, what, if any, data, could we use to inform projects such as reconstruction of science and research in former war zones, when the guns fall silent?
The report is currently in the data-gathering phase. Publication expected in 2027.
Big crises since 1972: putative correlations on science and research in Europe (provisional)
Crisis
Short-term correlates
Long-term correlates
Oil crises of the 1970s
Initially, renewed interest in RD&D related to renewable energy; but halfhearted investment followed until about 1980, then switched back to oil and gas recovery techniques (nuclear research also curtailed due to disasters).(1)
Renewable energy technology was under-developed and reliant on RD&D by enthusiasts in the private sector and outside Europe, notably in China (think of solar cells and LED bulbs).(2) Technology became deploy-able too late to have the greatest impact on climate change.
Crises of the 1980/1990s
Break-up of applied RD&D centers in both private and privatized industries (in some cases, the end of the corporate lab).(3) State capacity deficits/lack of preparation associated with stuttering responses to HIV/AIDS and mad cow disease. Probably also exacerbated the many big industrial and transport accidents of the period.(4)
Some reconstruction of state expertise in late 1990s/early 2000s such as in food and workplace health and safety regulation.(5) SARS crisis stimulated pandemic preparations which were later forgotten. Rebuilding of state RD&D in selected areas notably military (the latter after 11 September 2001 attacks).
Collapse of Communism in eastern Europe post-1989
New intellectual freedoms matched with sometimes chaotic restructuring of science and research capacity (although exact details varied widely between countries). Exception of East Germany, where the science and research system was restructured in a more planned way.(6)
Brain drain. End of the technical middle class as previously known. Scientific capacity gradually rebuilt in some areas but in many others left to decline further with various knock-on effects.
2008 financial crisis
Hollowing out of state capacity in science and research initially only in some countries such as Greece and Spain, but then spreading to other parts of Europe.(7) Nowhere was there an increase in expenditure. Cuts were accompanied by talk about the importance of innovation.
The failure of states to stop the spread of covid, given their long-standing role in infectious disease control, is eye opening and not easy to lay entirely at the door of viral biology (some states in East Asia did manage to stop the virus spreading). Prior austerity policies probably need to be closely examined.
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