Winter preparation “dashboard”

Predictions

TopicExplanation
Seasonal weather forecast (e.g., ECMWF, Meteo-France, UK Met Office)Stockdale, How confident should we be in a prediction of El Niño? ECMWF, 10 April 2026, El Niño très probablement de retour à partir de l’été 2026: quelles conséquences à l’échelle planétaire? Meteo-France, 14 April 2026
Influenza“For vaccines for use in the 2026-2027 northern hemisphere influenza season, WHO recommends:

“Egg-based vaccines:
– A/Missouri/11/2025 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;
– A/Darwin/1454/2025 (H3N2)-like virus; and
– B/Tokyo/EIS13-175/2025 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus

“Cell culture-, recombinant protein- or nucleic acid-based vaccines:
– A/Missouri/11/2025 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;
– A/Darwin/1415/2025 (H3N2)-like virus; and
– B/Pennsylvania/14/2025 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus”*
COVID
“Pathogen X”†
CropWatch“Total global production of staple grain and oil crops in 2026 is estimated to reach 3,341.06 million metric tons, an increase of 27.74 million tons compared with the previous year, representing growth of about 0.8%…The next monitoring period (April-June) is a critical growth season for the world’s main season crops.”‡
*Recommended composition of influenza virus vaccines for use in the 2026-2027 northern hemisphere influenza season, WHO, 27 February 2026. †Six global health threats to watch in 2026, GAVI, February 2026. ‡April 2026 CropWatch Bulletin. Antonio, et al., 2026, Seasonal forecasting using the GenCast probabilistic machine learning model, in: Clim Dyn; O’Reilly, et al., 2026, Evaluating seasonal forecast improvements over the past two decades, in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society “In this study, through a careful and systematic comparison of models from different eras, we present clear evidence of improved seasonal forecast performance…For the extratropics, the picture is more mixed, with strong improvements only evident during the boreal winter season over the North Pacific and North America.” The implication of the latter paper seems to be that European seasonal forecasts are notably difficult.

Credible plans for health and welfare

TopicExplanation
Get homeless off the street and into high-quality accommodation
Supply wholesome hot meals and adequate warm clothing to those in need
Deliver relevant vaccines to ≥75 % of older adults and similarly high coverage in younger adults with chronic conditions
Adequate supply of infectious disease counter-measures including face masks, vaccines and tests
Adequate healthcare capacity for winter surge
Effective communication channels established with at-risk populations

Energy

TopicExplanation
Prices of electricity, gas and suitable biomass; availability of gas and suitable biomass
Insulation status of housing stock; insulation plans

Science and research

TopicExplanation
Adequate science and research to monitor program delivery and address unanswered questions

Notes:

Winter preparation

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