Between 1991 and 2020, the number of cold-related deaths was 2.5 times higher in eastern Europe than western Europe, and heat-related deaths were 6 times higher in southern Europe than in northern Europe. During the same time period, there were a median of 363,809 cold-related deaths [per annum]…and 43,729 heat-related deaths [per annum]…with a cold-to-heat-related death ratio of 8.3:1.
García-León, et al., 2024, Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study, in: Lancet Public Health
What does a European policy look like concerned with getting as many people as possible through the coming winter alive and in good health?
This is not an abstract question. Large numbers of people in Europe sicken and even die due to the effects of cold and respiratory diseases that circulate in winter, as well as the burning of fossil fuels, biomass and solid waste for space heating purposes, which produces air pollution likely harmful to health.* A policy designed to cut those numbers would necessarily cross energy (supply, distribution and consumption), public health, accessibility of wholesome food and warm clothing, and science and research.
The worst case scenario is obviously the combination of an energy supply crisis alongside a respiratory disease crisis such as pandemic flu and resurgence of COVID. But winter is also a perennial crisis for many people, regardless of the headlines.
In this project, I will access the risk profile for winter 2026/2027, examine what mitigations are in place, and how they could be boosted in the coming months.
In my view, the overall challenge for officials is recognizing the need for a practical, humane policy and working out how to weave together its various aspects. But once that had been achieved, even relatively inexpensive interventions would produce beneficial effects.
Notes:
Dr. William Burns PhD MSc
Email: william@resorg.news
Science Think Tank 