Between 1991 and 2020, the number of cold-related deaths was 2.5 times higher in eastern Europe than western Europe, and heat-related deaths were 6 times higher in southern Europe than in northern Europe. During the same time period, there were a median of 363,809 cold-related deaths [per annum]…and 43,729 heat-related deaths [per annum]…with a cold-to-heat-related death ratio of 8.3:1.
García-León, et al., 2024, Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study, in: Lancet Public Health
What does a European policy look like concerned with getting as many people as possible through the coming winter alive and in good health? This is not an abstract question. Large numbers of people in Europe sicken and even die during the winter (as compared to the summer).
While we lack a comprehensive explanation of this seasonal pattern, various factors are likely to be in play. For example, protection against cold is a “key determinant” of winter mortality.* Respiratory diseases circulate at greater intensity in winter. Vaccination rates for flu are inadequate, notably, in central and eastern Europe in part because governments refuse to pay for vaccination in older adults (in which flu mortality is also under-reported). Burning of fossil fuels, biomass and solid waste for space heating purposes, which produces air pollution, is also presumably noxious to health.†
To protect vulnerable populations, the Council of the European Union recommends that EU Member States achieve ≥75 % seasonal influenza vaccination coverage among older adults and similarly high coverage in younger adults with chronic conditions…The EU-27 average was 48.2 %, with CEE [central and eastern Europe] reporting notably lower rates – from 5.6 % in Slovakia to 31.5 % in Estonia – compared to 37.5-78.0 % in Western Europe…Austria was an outlier among EU-15 countries, lacking 2022 data and reporting only 18.3 % in 2019. Persistent under-utilization in older adults has characterized the CEE region over the past decade
Pitter, et al., 2025, Under-reported influenza mortality in Central and Eastern Europe hinders the extension of seasonal influenza vaccination programs in older adults, in: Vaccine
Therefore, the worst case scenario is perhaps an energy supply crisis against the backdrop of a notably cold winter and elevated circulation of respiratory disease, e.g., high levels of flu and a resurgence of COVID. I am not aware of expert predictions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (temperature) nor infectious burden for the coming winter offered in the public domain. But, the season is a perennial crisis for many people.
In this project, I will access the risk profile for winter 2026/2027, examine what mitigations are in place, and how they could be boosted in the coming months. As always, the emphasis will be on gathering the most incisive data, analysis and expert opinion.
The overall challenge for officials is probably recognizing the need for a practical, humane policy and working out how to weave together its various aspects. But once that had been achieved, even relatively inexpensive interventions would produce beneficial effects (citing, for example, the implications of EU projects such as LIFE BIO-BALANCE, on the space heating side, and funding vaccination of the elderly).
[T]o reduce the environmental and health impacts of uncontrolled household waste incineration, the development of a cascading wood waste management system is strongly advised. This would involve improving the infrastructure for the separate collection, recycling, and energy recovery of wood waste. To ensure that households – particularly in rural areas – continue to have access to affordable heating, these efforts should be accompanied by a social firewood support program and the promotion of short-rotation energy plantations.
Király, et al., 2025, Estimating the amount and heating value of wood waste burned in households based on FICM HWP model output data, in: Acta Agraria Debreceniensis
A policy designed to alleviate the dangers of winter would probably cut across energy (supply, distribution and consumption), public health, accessibility of wholesome food, and (perhaps) warm clothing, and science and research. The latter is important because we still lack an adequate understanding of many the parameters down to issues such as appropriate biomarkers to monitor wood smoke exposure.
I will also ask the question of whether there would be gains from a single, coordinated policy or whether policy-making would best be left, much as it is currently, in separate bureaucratic compartments. In responding to the US attack on Iran, the attention of European officials appears consumed by fossil fuel prices to the exclusion of the wider picture. I fear that many among us in Europe will once again pay the ultimate price for official negligence.
Notes:
*Ebi and Mills, 2013, Winter mortality in a warming climate: a reassessment, in: WIRES Climate Change
†Balogh, et al., 2025, Residential solid fuel combustion and its contribution to air pollution in Hungary: a comparative study, in: Atmospheric Environment; Hoffer, et al., 2024, Assessment of the contribution of residential waste burning to ambient PM10 concentrations in Hungary and Romania, in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Dr. William Burns PhD MSc
Email: william@resorg.news
Science Think Tank 